The Effect of Free Nutritious Meal Program and Income on Household Food Expenditure per Capita in West Sulawesi

Abstract

Food security and household consumption allocation efficiency represent vital dimensions of human capital development and regional economic sustainability in West Sulawesi Province. This study examines the partial and simultaneous effects of the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program Budget Realization and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP at Constant Prices) per Capita on Household Food Expenditure per Capita. Utilizing a long-format panel secondary dataset covering 6 regencies in West Sulawesi Province across 18 monthly periods (January 2025 – June 2026, N = 108 observation points; N = 74 valid SPSS observations), the study employs a Double-Log multiple linear regression econometric model. Data were officially collected from the Regional Office of DG Treasury Ministry of Finance West Sulawesi and BPS-Statistics Indonesia. The empirical results reveal that MBG Budget Realization exerts a statistically significant negative partial effect on food expenditure per capita (β1 = -0.0072; t = -4.092; p = 0.000 < 0.05), confirming an in-kind social transfer displacement effect where public nutritional assistance displaces private household food spending. Conversely, GRDP per Capita shows a statistically significant positive partial effect (β2 = 0.0530; t = 7.244; p = 0.000 < 0.05), with an income elasticity substantially below unity (0.0530 << 1.0) rigorously verifying Engel's Law (1857) and Keynesian Consumption Theory (1936). Simultaneously, both variables significantly influence food expenditure (F = 29.869; p = 0.000 < 0.05) with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.457 (45.7%). Policy implications highlight the imperative of sustaining the MBG program integrated with local food supply chains to promote regional economic growth and household consumption diversification toward sustainable welfare.